越來越貴的情人節 -- 性别經濟學視角
來源：微信公衆号 性别經濟學
一年一度的 2 月 14 日，是浪漫的情人節，也是商家們的重要營銷日。情人節已經變得越來越貴，據新浪财經報道，情人節的北京 SKP，" 上演了一場奢侈品 " 暗戰 "。在小紅書等平台 " 宰 " 男友攻略上線。
《經濟學人》選出全球慶祝情人節最昂貴的 15 個城市，上海排名全球第一，其次是紐約和聖彼得堡。
評選方法基于經濟學人智庫 EIU 的《全球生活成本指數》對全球 173 個城市 350 類商品的價格調查，其中選出浪漫夜晚的相關指标，包括在高檔時尚酒店喝一杯、兩人的兩道菜晚宴、一場電影、出租車和一瓶酒的總價。（EIU 調研全球商務人士，所以數字不全代表日常生活，僅作參考。）
上海作為全球浪漫價格最高的城市，一部分是上海本身物價高，在全球生活成本指數排名中排名前 20 位。另一部分原因，是中國失衡的性别比例，導緻男性 " 競争 " 女性的異常激烈，其中一種表現就在于給女性購買禮物。
今天發一篇之前的舊文，探讨中國性别比例失衡對女性是機遇還是威脅。其中曾提出：" 根據供需原則，性别比例的失調會導緻雙方在婚姻市場的議價能力發生變化。。。高性别比使得男性 - 男性競争更加激烈，但是不同社會競争的類型和尋找伴侶的策略都有差異，取決于女性認為什麼更重要。也許恰好在中國，節約以及長期的财務穩定比禮物以及短期物質利益更被女性看重。"
所以女性看重什麼，決定了男性的競争方向。如果看重禮物，男性追求者就會競争賺錢。看重配偶育兒，男性就會學習顧家帶孩子。看重顔值，男性就會開始保養和健身。看重知書達理，男性就着重飽讀詩書，修養品行。
女性看重什麼，很大程度是由社會文化和性别意識所影響。 同時，女性自我意識的覺醒，主動的選擇，會影響和引領男性的行為。著名演化生物學家和社會生物學家 Robert Trivers 說過，" 男性跟男性之間的競争隻是為了女性，所有其他方面的競争都是為了更好影響這個最終的競争 "。
女性的選擇，會影響一個國家的未來和方向。
原文作者：Alexander Van Kemenade
China ‘ s problem of excess boys over girls is not new． The new problem is excess men over women．
中國男孩數量大于女孩的問題已經不是新聞了。新的問題是成年男性多于成年女性。
China ’ s sex ratio imbalance at birth has been a well-documented phenomenon since sex-selective abortion took off as result of the one-child policy and the proliferation ultrasound devices in the 1990s． Yet disruption to society has thus far been limited since the imbalance has largely been confined to pre-marital generations （i.e． children and teenagers）．
由于一孩政策和 90 年代超聲設備的普及，基于性别的選擇性流産造成中國出生性别比例的失衡。然而迄今為止，性别比例失衡對社會的破壞影響一直是有限的，因為這種不平衡在很大程度上被限制在了婚前一代（即兒童和青少年）。
Now that the sex-imbalanced generation is coming of age， its social effects will become more serious． A raft of studies suggests that the role of women in society may fundamentally change．
随着性别失衡的一代人步入成年，其社會影響将變得更加嚴重。一系列的研究表明，女性的社會角色可能發生根本性的改變。
Sex ratios are a pretty fundamental force in shaping the behaviour of a population． When they go out of kilter， strange things tend to happen．
性别比例是塑造族群行為裡相當重要的基礎力量。當比例不再平衡時，奇怪的事情就開始發生了。
In 2014， the male-to-female ratio for the prime marriage age in China （age 20-24） was 1.06． That will rise to nearly 1.2 in the coming five years． In the animal kingdom， a population of excess males typically results in intensified mating competition， which can lead to a variety of effects on physical appearance and social behaviour．
2014 年，中國初婚年齡段（20-24 之間）男女比例是 1.06。在未來 5 年，這個比例将上升至接近 1.2。在動物王國裡，雄性數量過剩通常會加劇交配競争，這可能會對外貌和社會行為産生各種各樣的影響。
Mating competition is generally regarded to lead to more pronounced sexual dimorphism， or differences in the appearance between males and females of a species．
交配競争通常被認為會導緻更明顯的性别二态性，或者是一個物種裡雌雄兩性間外形的差異。
雌猩猩：" 我老覺得，你一點兒也不珍惜我的付出。"
雄猩猩：" 我。的。天。啊 "
For example， studies on baboons have found that when the number of males exceeds females in a local population， males tend to get larger in body size as a result of mate selection —— bigger males tend to win fights over females and get to reproduce， thus creating larger future generations． Dimorphism is also found in other characteristics， such as canine and testes size （for those species where sperm competition is important）．
例如，有研究顯示，如果某地的雄性狒狒數量超過雌性，作為擇偶的結果，雄性的身形會變得更魁梧，因為身形更大的雄性能夠赢得戰鬥從而獲得雌性為其繁衍，并獲得更多的後代。在其他特征上也能發現二态性，例如犬牙和睾丸的大小（對于那些精子競争很重要的物種來說）。
In addition to changes in physique， changes in the sex ratio also affect reproductive strategies．
除了體形的變化之外，性别比例的變化也會引起繁衍策略的改變。
For instance， when male-male competition is fierce， males are known to invest more effort in raising their offspring rather than in trying to find additional mates． In species that live in alpha male-dominated groups （such as gorillas）， mating competition can also increase the risk of infanticide by a non-resident male， leading females to enter into heat and reducing future competition．
例如，當男性與男性的競争越來越激烈，男性會花更多的精力養育自己的後代，而不是去尋找其他的配偶。生活在男性占主導地位的群體中（如大猩猩），交配競争也能增加非本群體的雄性殺嬰的風險，導緻雌性發情并且降低未來的競争。
Do humans， pose any fundamental exception to this observation？ In most human societies， brute strength is no longer the key determinant of success in mating competition． Instead， one of the main arenas for mating competition is in the economic realm． And economic behaviour has been shown to change as a result of gender imbalances．
對于動物界這一現象人類有不同的表現嗎？在大多數人類社會，蠻力不再是交配競争成功的決定因素。相反，交配競争的主戰場之一是經濟領域。研究發現性别比例失衡會引起經濟行為的變化。
Consider for instance the impact of sex ratios on the female ‘ s decision to remain in the labour force．
例如，性别比對女性留在勞動力市場行為的影響。
A study by Joshua Angrist， an economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Techno， of immigrant communities in the United States showed that increases in the local sex ratio reduced female labour supply． Women were more likely to exit the labour force after marriage given the increased ease with which one could find a husband．
麻省理工大學（MIT）經濟學家 Joshua Angrist 在研究美國移民社群的問題時發現，一個地區性别比的提高降低了當地女性的勞動供給。由于女性尋找丈夫的概率提高，女性更有可能在結婚後離開勞動力市場。
Sex ratios can also affect household saving behaviour．
性别比也會影響家庭儲蓄行為。
Wei Shangjin （now Chief Economist at the Asian Development Bank） and Zhang Xiaobo （professor at Peking University） concluded that roughly half of the substantial increase in China ‘ s household saving rate was attributable to the rise in sex ratios． Interestingly， the main subjects of the study were not the future grooms but their parents， who increased saving in order to improve their sons ’ attractiveness in the marriage market by purchasing housing and other signals of eligibility．
魏尚進（現任亞洲開發銀行首席經濟學家）和張曉波（北京大學教授）發現中國将近半數家庭儲蓄率的提高可以歸因為性别比的提高。有意思的是，這篇文章的研究主體并不是未來的新郎，而是他們的父母。父母增加儲蓄是為了買房子，從而提高兒子在婚姻市場的吸引力。
Does an increase in the sex ratio always result in males saving more？
是否性别比上升總會導緻男性儲蓄更多？
A study by psychologists on US cities suggests otherwise． Vladas Griskevicius （University of Minnesota） and his co-authors conclude that higher sex ratios actually reduced saving in the short term since more intense male-male competition lead to men buying things more impulsively in an effort to impress their prospective mates．
一項關于美國城市的心理學研究表明不盡其然。Vladas Griskevicius（明尼蘇達大學）和他的合作者發現由于高性别比使得男性與男性的競争更加激烈。因為男性會通過更加沖動的消費來給未來伴侶留下印象，所以高性别比實際上降低了短期儲蓄。
Does this contradict the results in the China study？ Not necessarily．
這項研究結果是否與中國的研究結果相矛盾呢？未必。
Higher sex ratios intensify male-male mating competition， but the nature of competition and mating tactics can vary across societies， depending on what the opposite sex find desirable． It may well be the case that in Chinese society， thriftiness and long-term financial stability are prized more by women than gifts and short-term material gain．
高性别比使得男性 - 男性競争更加激烈，但是不同社會競争的類型和尋找伴侶的策略都有差異，取決于女性認為什麼更重要。也許恰好在中國，節約以及長期的财務穩定比禮物以及短期物質利益更被女性看重。
Entrepreneurship and hard work？ Check．
創業和努力工作？是的。
In a different study， the same Wei and Zhang observe that private businesses were more likely to emerge in regions with a higher gender imbalance． Further， they find that son-only households were more likely to have started their own business than daughter-only households， and that this effect was more pronounced in counties with a more skewed sex ratio． They also show that households with a son in regions with a high sex ratio are willing to work longer hours and accept more unpleasant jobs．
魏尚進和張曉波在另一項研究中發現在性别失衡更嚴重的地區民營企業更有可能出現。此外，他們發現隻有兒子的家庭比隻有女兒的家庭更有可能創業，并且這一效應在性别失衡更嚴重的縣級地區更明顯。他們也發現性别比更高的地區有兒子的家庭工作意願工作時間更長以及更願意接受條件更差的工作。
2014 年中國分年齡段性别比
橫軸：每一位男性對應女性數量
縱軸：年齡段
數據來源：經濟學人智庫
The impact of rising sex ratios is thus real and policymakers should have potential unforeseen consequences on their radar． The question remains as to how these future developments will affect gender relations and women ‘ s welfare in Chinese society． The answer is far from straightforward．
所以性别比例上升的影響是實實在在的，政策制定者們應該提前考慮很難預知的各類問題。需要關注的是這些未來的各種可能發展将如何影響兩性之間的關系以及中國社會中女性的福利。答案并非一目了然。
According to most standard measures of gender equality such as labour participation rates and wage equality， the situation for women will worsen． If the evidence provided by these studies is instructive， financial power will be more concentrated in the hands of men as intensified marriage competition forces them to work harder and save more． Women will become increasingly financially dependent on their husbands．
根據大多衡量性别平等的标準指标，例如勞動參與率和同工同酬，女性将面臨的狀況可能會惡化。如果以上的研究提到的證據有指導作用的話，婚姻市場的競争加劇将導緻男性工作更努力，存錢更積極，同時财政大權會更多的集中在男性手中。與此同時，女性在财政上會變得更加依賴她們的丈夫。
At the same time， these developments have as their ultimate cause the increased bargaining position of women vis-a-vis men， dictated by the laws of demand and supply．
與此同時，根據供需原則，性别比例的失調會導緻雙方在婚姻市場的議價能力發生變化。
While the economic gap between men and women may get wider， family dynamics may improve． A number of studieson both humans and non-humans have found that increased mating competition among males leads to greater paternal investment （men becoming better fathers）， as well as increased marriage rates． Perhaps the outcome will be a Chinese woman who does not work yet commands greater authority in a relationship．
雖然男性跟女性在經濟方面的差距擴大，家庭的動态可能會改善。有文獻指出，不光是針對人類也有針對非人類的研究，發現婚姻市場上的激烈競争會導緻男性提高對下一代的投資（變成更好的父親），以及提高的結婚率。也許接下來發生的會是一位不工作的女性在兩性關系中要求更高的話語權。
Moreover， nature has a way of restoring things balance to things． Female animal species have been observed to adopt counter-strategies to deal with heightened male aggression and competitiveness． In the case of the infanticidal gorilla， a commonly-seen response is for the female to begin mating with multiple males so as to confuse the offending male as to which offspring is actually his own．
大自然總會重歸萬物于平衡。雌性動物會針對雄性更有進攻性和競争性的特點采取相應的對抗策略。對于大猩猩種群中存在的謀殺幼崽的行為，雌猩猩通常的響應是開始跟很多不同的雄猩猩交配從而使想要冒犯的雄猩猩分不清楚哪個幼崽是他自己的。
There is also increasing evidencethat females manipulate the sex ratio of their offspring to maximise their chances at having grandchildren． Too many males means there is a chance that a son will not get to reproduce． Thus， a female is a safer bet．
越來越多的證據也表明，雌猩猩會操縱下一代的性别比例來最大程度增加延續後代的概率。太多的下一代雄性意味着有的雄性可能無法繼續繁殖，此時生一個雌性會是更為穩妥的選擇。
Throughout history， most recorded instances of large sex ratio imbalances have involved a surplus of females as a result of war． China ‘ s case is thus unprecedented， it is hard to predict how things will pan out over the longer term．
多數載入史冊的大規模性别失衡是由于戰争導緻的女性剩餘。中國男性剩餘的現狀并無經驗可循，很難預測長期發展趨勢。
The abolition of the one-child policy， one of the main causes of sex-selective abortion in China， means that the sex ratio imbalance may well be a blip in history． Whether--and to what extent--the damage has already been done is， perhaps， a question for the baboons．
之前的一孩政策是中國大量基于性别的選擇性流産主要原因之一，随着此項政策的取消，性别失衡可能在曆史場合中隻是滄海一粟。是否 -- 并且何種程度——損害已經形成并無法逆轉，也許是隻有狒狒才知道的問題。
